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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 30

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:04) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 48 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-K.Short), Center-53-A.Glanton, Holder-9-B.Anger, RECOVERED by CAR-54-S.Thompson at CAR 28. 54-S.Thompson pushed ob at CAR 49 for 21 yards (9-B.Anger).

The Three Options

GO +0.31 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.98 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model