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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(12:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 31 yards to TB 12, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-43-F.Whittaker.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.71 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model