Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 16 at the 78

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

(11:52) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to TB 34, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.84 EP
73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model