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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(:46) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.28 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model