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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-G.Gano 58 yard field goal is No Good, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. 11-A.Humphries at TB -9 to CAR 33 for 76 yards (84-E.Dickson).

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +1.59 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.21 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model