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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 70

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:54) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to CAR 18, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 18 for no gain (23-C.Conte).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.60 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model