4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 43 yards to CAR 10, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.23 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.52 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model