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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) (Field Goal formation) 19-R.Aguayo 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.62 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model