NYJ @ NE — 4th & Data

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New England Patriots

13-2 HC Bill Belichick

Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 17.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NYJ

14.5%

85.5%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.239 vs Bryce Petty (NYJ) -0.225 EPA/dropback
NE offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
NYJ offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
NE defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
NYJ defense: +0.006 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18 11–25

–

NE 29 22–36

Projected margin: NE by 11 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYJ

Lorenzo Mauldin LB Out Ankle

Steve McLendon DT Out Hamstring

Matt Forte RB Doubtful Knee

Brandon Marshall WR Questionable Shoulder

Khiry Robinson RB Questionable Lower Leg

Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

NE

Danny Amendola WR Out Ankle

Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle

Tom Brady QB Questionable Thigh

Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee

Jordan Richards S Questionable Knee

Matt Slater WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 3

–

NE 41

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 08:20 FG NE (8:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NYJ 0 – NE 3
Q1 03:07 TD NE (3:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 88-M.Bennett for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 9
Q2 11:16 FG NE (11:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NYJ 0 – NE 13
Q2 02:47 TD NE (2:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 82-M.Lengel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 19
Q2 00:31 TD NE (:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 28-J.White for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 26
Q3 03:25 TD NE (3:25) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 16th TD of season, 4th-most in franchise history (Moss 23, 2007; Gronkowski 18, 2011; Martin 17, 1996). NYJ 0 – NE 33
Q4 12:27 TD NE (12:27) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 17th TD of season, ties Martin (1996) for 3rd-most in franchise history (Moss 23, 2007; Gronkowski 18, 2011). NYJ 0 – NE 40
Q4 06:20 FG NYJ (6:20) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – NE 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(12:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 39, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 47 for 8 yards (52-D.Harris).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

(8:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 13, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-17-C.Peake.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(14:11) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 30-N.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 4 yards (92-G.Grissom).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

(11:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

(6:00) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(5:02) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 23 for 3 yards (31-J.Jones).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(1:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to NE 9, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman to NE 13 for 4 yards (19-D.Smith; 45-R.Miles). Penalty on NE-36-B.King, Defensive Offside, declined.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(12:07) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(11:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 33, Center-46-T.Purdum. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 37 for 4 yards (45-R.Miles).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 69%

(10:30) 29-B.Powell right tackle to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 37

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 58%

(7:53) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 17-C.Peake to NE 10 for 27 yards (25-E.Rowe).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

(6:20) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP

p(convert) 73%

(4:23) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 33 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%

(1:55) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep left to 19-D.Smith.
See the full breakdown →

New York Jets