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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
@
NE Home

New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 17.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

NYJ
19.8%
NE
80.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.239 vs Bryce Petty (NYJ) -0.225 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ offense: -0.096 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.079 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18
–
NE 29
Projected margin: NE by 11 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

NYJ

Lorenzo Mauldin LB Out Ankle
Steve McLendon DT Out Hamstring
Matt Forte RB Doubtful Knee
Brandon Marshall WR Questionable Shoulder
Khiry Robinson RB Questionable Lower Leg
Muhammad Wilkerson DE Questionable Ankle

NE

Danny Amendola WR Out Ankle
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Tom Brady QB Questionable Thigh
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Knee
Jordan Richards S Questionable Knee
Matt Slater WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 3
–
NE 41

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:20 FG NE (8:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NYJ 0 – NE 3
  • Q1 03:07 TD NE (3:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 88-M.Bennett for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 9
  • Q2 11:16 FG NE (11:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NYJ 0 – NE 13
  • Q2 02:47 TD NE (2:47) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 82-M.Lengel for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 19
  • Q2 00:31 TD NE (:31) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 28-J.White for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – NE 26
  • Q3 03:25 TD NE (3:25) 29-L.Blount up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 16th TD of season, 4th-most in franchise history (Moss 23, 2007; Gronkowski 18, 2011; Martin 17, 1996). NYJ 0 – NE 33
  • Q4 12:27 TD NE (12:27) 71-C.Fleming reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 29-Blount 17th TD of season, ties Martin (1996) for 3rd-most in franchise history (Moss 23, 2007; Gronkowski 18, 2011). NYJ 0 – NE 40
  • Q4 06:20 FG NYJ (6:20) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYJ 3 – NE 41

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:56) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 39, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 47 for 8 yards (52-D.Harris).

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 96%

    (8:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 13, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-17-C.Peake.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (14:11) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 30-N.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 4 yards (92-G.Grissom).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (11:16) 3-S.Gostkowski 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 93%

    (6:00) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:02) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-J.Cardona. 30-N.Marshall to NYJ 23 for 3 yards (31-J.Jones).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to NE 9, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman to NE 13 for 4 yards (19-D.Smith; 45-R.Miles). Penalty on NE-36-B.King, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:07) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 33, Center-46-T.Purdum. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 37 for 4 yards (45-R.Miles).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (10:30) 29-B.Powell right tackle to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 58%

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 17-C.Peake to NE 10 for 27 yards (25-E.Rowe).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (6:20) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (4:23) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to NYJ 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-36-B.King.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 68%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep left to 19-D.Smith.