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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 81

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(14:11) 6-R.Allen punts 51 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-J.Cardona. 30-N.Marshall pushed ob at NYJ 34 for 4 yards (92-G.Grissom).

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.12 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.78 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model