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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 60

New England Patriots 27 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to NYJ 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 30-N.Marshall.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.77 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model