Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 58

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 20

What Actually Happened

(1:40) 4-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to NE 9, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-J.Edelman to NE 13 for 4 yards (19-D.Smith; 45-R.Miles). Penalty on NE-36-B.King, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.48 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -3.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model