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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 37

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 41

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 17-C.Peake to NE 10 for 27 yards (25-E.Rowe).

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 37, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model