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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 78

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(11:12) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NE 33, Center-46-T.Purdum. 24-Cy.Jones to NE 37 for 4 yards (45-R.Miles).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.93 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 35, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model