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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 54

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(:30) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 13, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-17-C.Peake.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.54 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model