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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 16

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 2-N.Folk 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.11 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 26, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model