4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 41

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 29-B.Powell right tackle to NYJ 36 for 2 yards (52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model