MIN @ GB — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer

Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy

Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 6.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIN

31.8%

68.2%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

GB offense: +0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
GB defense: +0.113 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.220 EPA/dropback in prior starts
MIN offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21

–

GB 26

Projected margin: GB by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

MIN

Brandon Fusco G Out Concussion

Zach Line RB Out Concussion

Adrian Peterson RB Out Knee

Laquon Treadwell WR Out Ankle

Stefon Diggs WR Questionable Hip

Harrison Smith S Questionable Ankle

GB

Jayrone Elliott LB Out Hand

James Starks RB Out Concussion

Randall Cobb WR Questionable Ankle

Nick Perry LB Questionable Hand

Damarious Randall CB Questionable Shoulder

J.C. Tretter C Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 25

–

GB 38

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 07:20 TD GB (7:20) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – GB 6
Q1 03:40 FG MIN (3:40) 2-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – GB 7
Q1 01:54 TD GB (1:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – GB 13
Q2 12:34 FG MIN (12:34) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 6 – GB 14
Q2 08:19 TD GB (8:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – GB 20
Q2 07:35 TD MIN (7:35) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 71 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 12 – GB 21
Q2 00:32 TD GB (:32) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – GB 27
Q4 15:00 FG GB (15:00) 2-M.Crosby 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. MIN 13 – GB 31
Q4 09:07 TD GB (9:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 82-R.Rodgers for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-34-A.Sendejo, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 13 – GB 37
Q4 04:24 TD MIN (4:24) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 14-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 19 – GB 38
Q4 00:40 TD MIN (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-K.Clark]. MIN 25 – GB 38

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 GB 4th & 8 at the 39

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 51%

(11:02) 10-J.Schum punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.
Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 74

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 50%

(10:05) 18-J.Locke punts 45 yards to GB 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde to GB 39 for 10 yards (41-A.Harris).
Q1 MIN 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

(3:40) 2-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
Q2 MIN 4th & 2 at the 8

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 97%

(12:34) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.
Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP

p(convert) 73%

(11:10) 10-J.Schum punts 42 yards to MIN 24, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
Q3 MIN 4th & 13 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(13:34) 18-J.Locke punts 33 yards to GB 45, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.
Q3 GB 4th & 17 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(12:19) 10-J.Schum punts 49 yards to MIN 13, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.
Q3 MIN 4th & 7 at the 52

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 20%

(6:35) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to GB 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde to GB 34 for 19 yards (35-M.Sherels).
Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(5:08) 10-J.Schum punts 47 yards to MIN 14, Center-61-B.Goode. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 14 for no gain (83-J.Janis).
Q3 MIN 4th & 8 at the 84

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(4:11) 18-J.Locke punts 39 yards to GB 45, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde to MIN 44 for 11 yards (57-A.Cole).
Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(13:33) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to GB 44, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde MUFFS catch, and recovers at GB 47. 33-M.Hyde to GB 47 for no gain (47-K.McDermott).
Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 44

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 38%

(6:26) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at GB 33 for 11 yards (24-Q.Rollins).
Q4 GB 4th & 20 at the 84 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(3:53) 10-J.Schum punts 38 yards to MIN 46, Center-61-B.Goode. 35-M.Sherels to GB 34 for 20 yards (29-K.Brice).
Q4 MIN 4th & 12 at the 36 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 28% p(FG) 59%

(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at GB 12 for 24 yards (24-Q.Rollins).
Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 4 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

(1:35) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 82-K.Rudolph to GB 1 for 3 yards (48-J.Thomas).