Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 78

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 28

(13:34) 18-J.Locke punts 33 yards to GB 45, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.66 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model