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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 44

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 38

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short middle to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at GB 33 for 11 yards (24-Q.Rollins).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.32 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.76 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.26 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model