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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 10-J.Schum punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 39, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 48, worth -2.48 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model