Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(10:05) 18-J.Locke punts 45 yards to GB 29, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde to GB 39 for 10 yards (41-A.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model