Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 28 – Minnesota Vikings 13

(12:19) 10-J.Schum punts 49 yards to MIN 13, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.10 EP
72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model