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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 4

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 2-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP