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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 12 at the 36

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Green Bay Packers 38

What Actually Happened

(2:30) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen pushed ob at GB 12 for 24 yards (24-Q.Rollins).

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +3.48 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.60 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP