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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 14 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 10-J.Schum punts 42 yards to MIN 24, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.47 EP