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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 52

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Green Bay Packers 28

What Actually Happened

(6:35) 18-J.Locke punts 37 yards to GB 15, Center-47-K.McDermott. 33-M.Hyde to GB 34 for 19 yards (35-M.Sherels).

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.89 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model