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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Jeff Fisher
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US 🌧 Rain Spread 1.0 O/U 39.0

Win Probability

MIA
36.4%
LA
63.6%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts (LA starting Jared Goff in place of Case Keenum)
  • MIA crossing 3 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 21
–
LA 25
Projected margin: LA by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

MIA

Branden Albert T Out Wrist
Xavien Howard CB Out Knee
Mike Pouncey C Doubtful Hip
Jelani Jenkins LB Doubtful Knee
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Ankle
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder
Mike Hull LB Questionable Knee
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Shoulder
Anthony Steen G Questionable Neck
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Calf
Jason Jones DE Questionable Knee
Mario Williams DE Questionable Ankle

LA

Tim Barnes C Questionable Foot
Lamarcus Joyner CB Questionable Ankle
Robert Quinn DE Questionable Illness
Eugene Sims DE Questionable Concussion
Todd Gurley RB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 14
–
LA 10

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 22 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:54 TD LA (9:54) 30-T.Gurley right guard for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – LA 6
  • Q3 01:43 FG LA (1:43) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. MIA 0 – LA 10
  • Q4 04:13 TD MIA (4:13) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 14-J.Landry for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – LA 10
  • Q4 00:40 TD MIA (:40) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-D.Parker for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – LA 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to MIA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (11:54) 4-M.Darr punts 54 yards to LA 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-T.Austin pushed ob at LA 32 for 12 yards (31-M.Thomas).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:45) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to LA 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 27 for 7 yards (26-D.Williams).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to MIA 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 19-J.Grant.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (14:27) 6-J.Hekker punts 61 yards to MIA 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 14-J.Landry to MIA 12 for 1 yard (15-B.Marquez).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:19) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to LA 42, Center-92-J.Denney. 10-P.Cooper to LA 39 for -3 yards (31-M.Thomas). Penalty on MIA-31-M.Thomas, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on LA-59-J.Forrest, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 22%

    (10:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to MIA 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (5:42) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to LA 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to MIA 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-34-C.Reynolds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:17) 4-M.Darr punts 35 yards to LA 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (13:28) 4-M.Darr punts 48 yards to LA 24, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 14 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 32%

    (9:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 36 yards to MIA 12, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 12 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:01) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to LA 33, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-T.Austin to MIA 31 for 36 yards (45-M.Hull). Penalty on LA-39-M.Brown, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on LA-41-M.Christian, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 33.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 80%

    (1:43) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (14:25) 4-M.Darr punts 53 yards to LA 36, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 47 for 11 yards (35-W.Aikens).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 19 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:13) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to MIA 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 20 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:15) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to LA 50, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 30
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 76%

    (6:45) 4-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. PENALTY on MIA-96-L.Orr, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at MIA 38.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 4 at the 69 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to MIA 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 3 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 24%

    (:10) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 88-L.Kendricks to MIA 47 for 5 yards (47-K.Alonso).