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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 69

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to MIA 25, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model