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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(:10) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 88-L.Kendricks to MIA 47 for 5 yards (47-K.Alonso).

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.32 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.02 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -0.25 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP