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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 53

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:02) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to MIA 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.83 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 53, worth -2.87 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP