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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 93

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to LA 50, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.76 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.86 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 93, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 51, worth -2.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model