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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to MIA 19, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +3.25 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model