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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 28

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(1:43) 4-G.Zuerlein 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.54 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.49 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model