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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to LA 8, Center-92-J.Denney, fair catch by 11-T.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.45 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -2.70 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model