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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(7:45) 4-M.Darr punts 46 yards to LA 20, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 27 for 7 yards (26-D.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP