4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

GB
46.5%
TEN
53.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.094 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

GB 24
–
TEN 25
Projected margin: TEN by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

GB

Clay Matthews LB Out Hamstring
J.C. Tretter C Out Knee
Damarious Randall CB Out Groin
Jared Cook TE Doubtful Ankle
Micah Hyde S Questionable Shoulder
James Starks RB Questionable Knee

TEN

Aaron Wallace LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 25
–
TEN 47

Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:28 TD TEN (13:28) 29-D.Murray left tackle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 07:04 TD TEN (7:04) 29-D.Murray pass short right to 82-D.Walker for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – TEN 13
  • Q1 00:13 TD TEN (:13) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 80-A.Fasano for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – TEN 20
  • Q2 10:53 TD GB (10:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 87-J.Nelson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – TEN 21
  • Q2 08:52 TD TEN (8:52) 8-M.Mariota pass deep left to 18-R.Matthews for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – TEN 27
  • Q2 04:00 FG GB (4:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 10 – TEN 28
  • Q2 02:00 TD TEN (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 13-K.Wright for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 10 – TEN 34
  • Q2 00:51 TD GB (:51) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 44-J.Starks for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 16 – TEN 35
  • Q3 09:02 TD GB (9:02) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles up the middle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-20-P.Cox, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 22 – TEN 35
  • Q3 06:35 TD TEN (6:35) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep right to 19-T.Sharpe for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-19-T.Sharpe, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 22 – TEN 41
  • Q3 01:02 FG GB (1:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum. GB 25 – TEN 41
  • Q4 10:01 FG TEN (10:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. GB 25 – TEN 44
  • Q4 04:56 FG TEN (4:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. GB 25 – TEN 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 45%

    (13:38) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback. GB-47-J.Ryan was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (5:35) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 54 yards to TEN 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 39 for 12 yards (48-J.Thomas). PENALTY on TEN-50-N.Palmer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 39.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (4:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:35) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 34 yards to GB 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Davis MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TEN-36-L.Sims at GB 24. PENALTY on GB-51-K.Fackrell, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 12 yards, enforced at GB 24.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 52%

    (:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 29-D.Murray.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (13:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to GB 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (11:49) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks right end to GB 38 for 7 yards (23-B.McCain).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 17-D.Adams to TEN 22 for 35 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on TEN-20-P.Cox, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 90%

    (1:02) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 50%

    (12:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 82-R.Rodgers.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 70%

    (10:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (4:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 18 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:42) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 57 yards to TEN 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 31 for 11 yards (91-J.Elliott).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 12 at the 71 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (1:10) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to GB 25, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Davis to GB 37 for 12 yards (50-N.Palmer).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 55 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:41) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Janis (20-P.Cox).