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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 41 – Green Bay Packers 25

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.50 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP