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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 35 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(13:13) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to GB 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP