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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 11

Green Bay Packers 7 – Tennessee Titans 28

What Actually Happened

(4:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model