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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 16 – Tennessee Titans 35

What Actually Happened

(11:49) (Shotgun) 44-J.Starks right end to GB 38 for 7 yards (23-B.McCain).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.37 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model