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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 40

Tennessee Titans 35 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(:14) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 29-D.Murray.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +2.19 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP