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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 43

Green Bay Packers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:38) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-61-B.Goode, Touchback. GB-47-J.Ryan was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.24 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.21 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.30 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP