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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 5

Tennessee Titans 44 – Green Bay Packers 25

What Actually Happened

(4:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 5, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.52 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model