Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 81

Green Bay Packers 0 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 54 yards to TEN 27, Center-61-B.Goode. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 39 for 12 yards (48-J.Thomas). PENALTY on TEN-50-N.Palmer, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 39.

The Three Options

GO -3.18 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.80 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model