4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 77

Green Bay Packers 25 – Tennessee Titans 47

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Punt formation) 10-J.Schum punts 57 yards to TEN 20, Center-61-B.Goode. 87-M.Mariani pushed ob at TEN 31 for 11 yards (91-J.Elliott).

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.71 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 77, worth -2.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model