JAX @ KC — 4th & Data

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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley

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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid

Sunday 2016-11-06 · 13:00 Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

JAX

39.3%

60.7%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

JAX offense: -0.127 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
QB edge to JAX: Nick Foles (KC) -0.218 vs Blake Bortles (JAX) -0.020 EPA/dropback (KC starting Nick Foles in place of Alex Smith)
JAX on 3 more days rest than KC
JAX defense: +0.054 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 18

–

KC 22

Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

JAX

Jared Odrick DE Out Foot

Aaron Colvin CB Questionable Calf

KC

Parker Ehinger G Out Knee

Spencer Ware RB Out Concussion

Alex Smith QB Out Head

D.J. White CB Out Hand

Jaye Howard DE Questionable Hip

Jeremy Maclin WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 14

–

KC 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 01:55 TD KC (1:55) (Shotgun) 4-N.Foles pass deep left to 12-A.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 0 – KC 6
Q2 09:58 FG KC (9:58) 5-C.Santos 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. JAX 0 – KC 10
Q2 00:07 TD JAX (:07) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 15-A.Robinson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – KC 10
Q3 08:48 FG KC (8:48) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. JAX 7 – KC 13
Q3 04:02 FG KC (4:02) 5-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. JAX 7 – KC 16
Q4 10:23 FG KC (10:23) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. JAX 7 – KC 19
Q4 04:15 TD JAX (4:15) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 24-T.Yeldon for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – KC 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 48

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 29%

(12:15) 3-B.Nortman punts 35 yards to KC 13, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.
Q1 KC 4th & 1 at the 55

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70%

(10:30) 35-C.West up the middle to KC 47 for 2 yards (37-J.Cyprien).
Q1 KC 4th & 11 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(8:37) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to JAX 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.
Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 43

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 41%

(5:22) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. PENALTY on KC-14-D.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 20.
Q1 KC 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(2:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to JAX 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 23 for 8 yards (57-D.Alexander). FUMBLES (57-D.Alexander), RECOVERED by KC-80-J.O'Shaughnessy at JAX 23. 80-J.O'Shaughnessy to JAX 23 for no gain (59-A.Brown).
Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 30

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 74%

(14:27) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep right to 88-A.Hurns.
Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 67

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(12:31) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to JAX 13, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 19 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
Q2 KC 4th & 5 at the 8

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 97%

(9:58) 5-C.Santos 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 57

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP

p(convert) 68%

(6:24) 3-B.Nortman punts 47 yards to KC 10, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-T.Hill to KC 20 for 10 yards (16-D.Robinson).
Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(3:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.
Q3 KC 4th & 3 at the 69

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP

p(convert) 55%

(12:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to JAX 14, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.
Q3 KC 4th & 5 at the 33

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 67%

(8:48) 5-C.Santos 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q3 JAX 4th & 13 at the 66

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(6:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to KC 24, Center-46-C.Tinker. 10-T.Hill to JAX 40 for 36 yards (3-B.Nortman). PENALTY on JAX-46-C.Tinker, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 40.
Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 5

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.33 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

(4:02) 5-C.Santos 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q3 JAX 4th & 5 at the 36

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 60%

(:34) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.
Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 18

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%

(10:23) 5-C.Santos 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 85

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(6:46) 2-D.Colquitt punts 54 yards to JAX 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 39 for 8 yards (51-F.Zombo).
Q4 KC 4th & 17 at the 82 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(3:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to JAX 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 35 for 12 yards (57-D.Alexander).
Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 32 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 70%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 81-B.Walters (20-S.Nelson).