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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 8

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 5-C.Santos 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.14 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.91 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP