Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(3:28) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to JAX 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 81-B.Walters.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.82 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model