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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 82

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Jacksonville Jaguars 14

What Actually Happened

(3:15) 2-D.Colquitt punts 59 yards to JAX 23, Center-41-J.Winchester. 81-B.Walters to JAX 35 for 12 yards (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 82, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 40, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model